Establishment and verification of a nomogram model of the risk of hypertension among the Kazakh herders in the Nanshan pastoral area of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region
YOU Shuping1 YANG Fei1 TAO Ning2 ZHENG Yanling3 CHEN Qingjie4 XIANG Yang2 FAN Qiongling1 ZHAN Huaifeng5
1.College of Nursing, Xinjiang Medical University, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China;
2.School of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China;
3.College of Engineering, Xinjiang Medical University, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China;
4.Department of Cardrology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830011, China;
5.Physical Examination Center of Shuixigou Health Center, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Urumqi 830000, China
Abstract：Objective To explore the risk factors of hypertension among Kazakh herders in Nanshan pastoral area of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, and to construct the corresponding nomogram model. Methods From November 2016 to November 2018, a multi-stage stratified random sampling method was used to select 5213 resident herdsmen ≥18 years old from the Nanshan pastoral area of Urumqi County to collect baseline data, questionnaire surveys, and physical examination results. According to the multivariate logistic regression analysis, the risk factors related to hypertension were selected and determined; R software was used to construct a nomogram for the risk prediction of hypertension. Results The age, pulse rate, waist-to-hip ratio, neck circumference, daily salt intake and pulse pressure difference in the hypertension group were higher than those in the normal blood pressure group (P ＜ 0.05). The proportion of hypertension group with family history of hypertension, overweight and obesity, milk tea overdose, dyslipidemia and diabetes were higher than those of the normal blood pressure group (P ＜ 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, overweight and obesity, family history of hypertension, dyslipidemia, neck circumference, pulse rate, pulse pressure difference, and daily salt intake were risk factors for hypertension in Kazakh herders (OR ＞ 1, P ＜ 0.05). Incorporate these factors into and construct a nomogram; the initial C-index of the nomogram model was 0.769 (95%CI: 0.862-0.954), while the C-index was 0.722 (95%CI: 0.656-0.788) after 1000 internal verifications using the repeated Bootstrap self-sampling method. Conclusion The nomogram constructed based on the risk factors of hypertension among the Kazakh herders has good accuracy and clinical application value. It has guiding significance for identifying the high-risk groups of hypertension among the Kazakh herders and formulating intervention countermeasures.
由淑萍1 杨菲1 陶宁2 郑彦玲3 陈清杰4 向阳2 樊琼玲1 詹怀峰5. 新疆南山牧区哈萨克族牧民高血压患病风险的列线图模型建立及验证[J]. 中国医药导报, 2021, 18(20): 21-24,33.
YOU Shuping1 YANG Fei1 TAO Ning2 ZHENG Yanling3 CHEN Qingjie4 XIANG Yang2 FAN Qiongling1 ZHAN Huaifeng5. Establishment and verification of a nomogram model of the risk of hypertension among the Kazakh herders in the Nanshan pastoral area of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. 中国医药导报, 2021, 18(20): 21-24,33.
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