Abstract：Objective To discuss the risk factors of peripherally inserted central catheter (PICC) related bloodstream infection (PBSI) in patients with PICC, and to establish and validate a nomogram model for predicting the risk of PBSI. Methods A total of 931 patients receiving PICC in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Hainan Medical University from January 2016 to January 2020 were selected as research objects. The patients were divided into PBSI group (63 cases) and non-PBSI group (868 cases) according to whether there was PBSI or not, and clinical characteristics were compared. Multiplicity logistic regression analysis was used to screen independent risk factors of PBSI. According to the results of regression analysis, the nomogram prediction model was established. Calibration curve and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) were used to evaluate the predictive effectiveness of the model. Results Multiplicity logistic regression analysis showed that diabetes mellitus, malignant tumor, hematopathy, parenteral nutrition, double lumen, additional devices, ICU stay, and the time of indwelling catheter were independent risk factors for PBSI in PICC patients (P < 0.05). The C-index of internal validation of nomogram model was 0.929. The average absolute error between the predicted risk of PBSI and the actual risk was 0.017. The area under the curve predicted by ROC curve nomogram model was 0.930. Conclusion The nomogram model established in this study for predicting the risk of PBSI in patients with PICC has good discrimination and accuracy, and has high clinical value.
2020, Vol. 17 
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